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The Signal That Preceded Bitcoin's Huge Rising Strands Just Appeared - Cryptocurrencies Today

The cryptocurrency market has a peculiar habit: when everyone believes Bitcoin surge is impossible and a crash is imminent, it surprises with a sharp rally. Conversely, when absolute certainty of a new peak takes hold, the market often reverses and melts down. Today, amidst the highest levels of pessimism this year, many are asking a crucial question: Are we witnessing the major reversal that only a few will dare to capitalize on? The current market panorama, as of Monday, November 17, 2025, shows a challenging environment where fear dominates, yet historical and technical signals hint at a potential shift. Understanding this dissonance is key to navigating the next phase of the cycle. This article explores the confluence of extreme fear and technical indicators that often precede a significant upward movement, suggesting a foundation is being laid for the next Bitcoin surge.

The Bitcoin surge narrative is currently muffled by widespread fear. The market leader continues to trade at $95,000, approximately 25% below its all-time high. Ethereum has shown a minor recovery, trading around $3,195. The Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in "Extreme Fear," albeit showing a slight recovery to 14 points after hitting a low of 10 for two consecutive days. This prolonged fear at extreme levels, unseen since the beginning of the year, is a psychological factor that historically sets the stage for a Bitcoin surge. The recent price drops, which saw Bitcoin briefly trading below $93,000, have fueled panic and triggered massive liquidations of leveraged positions, totaling nearly a billion dollars daily. In the last 24 hours alone, $618 million was liquidated, with a significant $397 million in long positions being wiped out.

Analyzing the Altcoin Market Bottom and Technical Patterns

While the broader market sentiment remains negative, with most altcoins exploring new lows and showing prolonged dips due to low liquidity, certain technical analysts are highlighting patterns that suggest an impending change. Specifically, some experts are pointing to the formation of a "Cup and Handle" pattern on the Total 3 chart—the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. This pattern is considered bullish and is often characteristic of a cycle bottom. Should this pattern successfully break out, it could signal the inflow of trillions of dollars back into altcoins, leading to multiple-X valuations across the board. The confirmation of this pattern, alongside improving macro-economic factors, could ignite the broader crypto market and reinforce the potential for a substantial Bitcoin surge.

Macroeconomic factors also stand ready to support a trend reversal. Potential interest rate reductions in the United States and the introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve are conditions that historically favor risk assets like cryptocurrencies. These global macroeconomic shifts would provide a strong tailwind for the market, supporting the thesis that major rallies often follow periods of investor desperation and capitulation. This creates a compelling argument for accumulating solid projects now, following the old adage of buying when others are fearful. The greatest opportunities for a Bitcoin surge and altcoin gains are frequently missed by those who sell in panic and only repurchase when euphoria returns.

The Contrarian's Edge: Buying the Fear

It is undeniable that we are in a prime moment for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into fundamentally sound projects. The common mistake is to "buy the euphoria and sell the fear." Instead, investors should aim to buy when they can, ideally during periods of extreme fear like the one we are currently experiencing. The Fear & Greed Index hitting 10 points for two days running underscores this point. The majority of investors sell due to panic, only to buy back later in euphoria, thus missing the market's true, life-changing opportunities. Even if a strong asset continues to drop slightly after a purchase, maintaining a DCA strategy allows investors to manage risk effectively and position themselves for the eventual recovery and Bitcoin surge. The timeless saying holds true: "Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

Maintaining a disciplined, fundamentals-based strategy is critical. It is essential to resist emotional urges and remember that severe market crashes have historically been followed by strong, often miraculous, recoveries. Consider the previous bear market: many investors panicked after buying the top, only to see Bitcoin melt down towards $15,000. However, for those who held conviction, Bitcoin is now trading at $95,000. Selling in fear would have locked in losses; holding firm or accumulating more positions during the dip means those investors are now profitable. This requires strong emotional resistance and a clear long-term vision, recognizing that major downturns are merely temporary phases before the next Bitcoin surge.

The Death Cross and Bullish Divergences

The market recently saw a significant technical event: the Bitcoin Death Cross formed over the weekend, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this signal indicates that momentum has slowed and the asset is entering a bear market phase. However, a Death Cross does not guarantee a prolonged bear market. In the previous cycle (2021), Bitcoin plummeted 54% over four months before staging a massive recovery of over 130% to reach a new all-time high. In the current cycle, Bitcoin has only dropped approximately 25% from its peak. Speculation suggests it could drop an additional 25% before the inevitable push towards new peaks, potentially around $150,000, as forecasted by many analysts for 2025. Adding to the bullish case, the Bitcoin one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at its most oversold level in the past year, another technical signal that often precedes a significant relief rally and the eventual Bitcoin surge.

The current market is also characterized by conflicting expert opinions, highlighting a state of extreme division. Here are some key observations:

• Bitwise Research: André Dragoshi, Head of Research, argues that the situation is less gloomy than previous recessions, noting that the sentiment index is pessimistic but less so than during past major corrections.
• Northman Trader: Sven Enrichish points to a falling wedge pattern with positive divergence on the Bitcoin price chart, which is a potentially positive signal for optimistic investors.
• Messari Research: An analyst known as DRXL noted an unprecedented dissonance between extremely "bullish" headlines and overwhelmingly "bearish" market sentiment, suggesting that all the fundamental dreams for the industry are being realized, yet the overall feeling is one of exhaustion.

This division suggests a "contested bottom" scenario, where clarity is scarce, and the biggest gains are often secured by those who act decisively against the prevailing fear.

Regulatory Winds and Historical Context

While technical and sentiment indicators suggest a bottom is forming, regulatory developments from global jurisdictions introduce a note of caution. On the other side of the world, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to classify 105 crypto assets as financial products. This move would subject them to stricter disclosure and insider trading rules, including a fixed 20% tax rate on crypto gains, aligning their taxation with traditional stocks. The proposal, set to be presented to Parliament in 2026, could also legally permit banks to invest in and custody cryptocurrencies. While increased regulation often brings near-term uncertainty, in the long term, it is seen as a sign of institutional acceptance, which could eventually become a massive driver for the next Bitcoin surge.

Looking back at the 2021 cycle provides a powerful historical context for the current situation. The market saw a steep 54% drop between April and July of 2021 (a four-month correction) before it recovered and surged over 130% between July and November of the same year, ultimately reaching a new all-time high. The message from history is clear: Major uptrends follow periods of intense despair. We are currently in a phase of extreme pessimism, prolonged consolidation, and low altcoin liquidity. However, a combination of historical precedent, favorable macroeconomic tailwinds, and developing technical patterns—such as the potential Cup and Handle formation—strongly suggests that this is the final phase before a massive trend reversal. The key takeaway remains a simple alert: the biggest profits materialize precisely when conviction is lowest and almost no one believes a Bitcoin surge is possible.

What is Your Strategy?

The market is clearly divided. We see historical patterns suggesting a reversal, bullish technical divergences, and extreme fear that often marks a bottom. At the same time, we have the recent Death Cross and continued low liquidity. The question for every investor is simple:

• Are you bearish, anticipating a deeper correction and the next bear market?
• Or are you bullish, prepared to accumulate now for the potential trend reversal and the next Bitcoin surge?

What solid projects are you accumulating during this period of extreme fear? Share your thoughts and strategy in the comments below!